Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.204942 11.994343 13.961923 16.280065 18.930312 21.859304 25.334829
2024-12-22 7.461549 9.763732 12.533484 16.087102 20.498697 25.766712 32.501834
2024-12-29 5.782367 8.293046 11.551664 16.037291 21.989314 29.546379 39.785595
2025-01-05 4.448297 6.932248 10.382683 15.435485 22.536999 32.035917 45.547528
2025-01-12 3.655971 6.132817 9.784479 15.425299 23.750493 35.383540 52.610947
2025-01-19 3.051278 5.480136 9.262272 15.394058 24.847872 38.577397 59.637691
2025-01-26 2.763110 5.264767 9.347336 16.243027 27.270736 43.806290 69.915040
2025-02-02 2.489479 5.018515 9.333013 16.905216 29.432061 48.774776 80.130913
2025-02-09 2.274929 4.834729 9.385544 17.659161 31.775449 54.158126 91.310205
2025-02-16 1.976406 4.440063 9.012389 17.633302 32.813993 57.540940 99.574154
2025-02-23 1.657538 3.946007 8.386628 17.077566 32.880275 59.327812 105.371191
2025-03-02 1.376117 3.474174 7.731461 16.378304 32.604962 60.490542 110.173963
2025-03-09 1.214041 3.234966 7.506281 16.476763 33.792726 64.257933 119.657246
2025-03-16 1.059618 2.983444 7.220805 16.423683 34.694117 67.593576 128.631553
2025-03-23 0.931267 2.767673 6.978093 16.422979 35.683879 71.139721 138.178172
2025-03-30 0.778136 2.456240 6.478206 15.825466 35.450831 72.446398 143.831286
2025-04-06 0.686508 2.285715 6.270622 15.821045 36.382865 75.940467 153.600741
2025-04-13 0.605527 2.126244 6.064220 15.791203 37.251362 79.358101 163.411491
2025-04-20 0.581469 2.126782 6.247396 16.660124 40.058640 86.648608 180.810904
2025-04-27 0.548954 2.095020 6.344516 17.337496 42.507683 93.380956 197.500450
2025-05-04 0.522772 2.077694 6.476152 18.108436 45.214716 100.771413 215.812560
2025-05-11 0.465731 1.946759 6.287502 18.082035 46.161522 104.695858 227.626686
2025-05-18 0.395951 1.754141 5.899512 17.513863 45.839002 106.015251 234.399197